In April 2025, US President Trump issued Executive Orders No. 14257 and No. 14259, announcing that a 10% reciprocal tariff would be imposed on many countries and regions, including Brazil, starting from April 5, and that reciprocal tariffs higher than 10% would be imposed on certain countries and regions starting from April 9 (among which, the reciprocal tariff on China was once as high as 125%) [1] .
As of May 12, 2025, according to the latest “China-US Joint Statement of the Geneva Economic and Trade Talks”, the United States pledged to cancel the tariffs imposed by Executive Orders No. 14257 and No. 14259 before May 14, 2025, and the reciprocal tariffs against China will be temporarily changed to 10%, the same as other countries.
The extremely unstable tariff rate adjustment of the United States has had a great impact on cross-border trade in China, the European Union and other regions. Cross-border e-commerce companies in China, the United States, and Europe and the United States have had to adjust their supply chains or the proportion of their business in the United States. In contrast, Brazil is much less directly affected by US tariffs.
This article briefly discusses the challenges and opportunities of strengthening investment and trade relations between Brazil and China under the background of US tariffs. We have been paying attention to China-Brazil trade for a long time and have rich experience in providing consulting services for Latin America. If you have any strategic and compliance questions about China-Brazil trade, please feel free to contact us.
1. Brazil strengthens economic and trade ties with China amid US tariffs
The United States has been Brazil’s second largest trading partner since 2010 [2] . In 2024, the United States’ trade surplus with Brazil in goods is expected to reach approximately $7 billion, and $28.6 billion in goods and services. Given that Brazil’s trade position with the United States is roughly balanced, the Trump administration has imposed only a 10% reciprocal tariff on Brazil. While it is impossible to predict how long this “only” 10% reciprocal tariff will last, given that the United States is in a favorable surplus position under the macroeconomic conditions between the United States and Brazil, we estimate that this 10% tariff will not change significantly in the short to medium term.
Although the direct impact of the tariffs between Brazil and the United States on Brazil is relatively limited, it indirectly further strengthens the economic and trade ties between Brazil and China. The Chinese and Brazilian governments have communicated on cooperation matters many times, and some of China’s orders to the United States have gradually shifted to Brazil, and China’s demand for beef, soybeans, etc. has gradually been taken over by Brazil:
- On April 11, Brazilian Vice President and Minister of Development, Industry, Trade and Services Alckmin had a video call with Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao, aiming to strengthen China-Brazil economic and trade cooperation in response to the imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the United States.
- On April 17, Zhang Zhili, Vice Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China, led a Chinese delegation to attend the BRICS Working Group Meeting in Brazil. The meeting focused on the export of Brazilian agricultural products such as soybeans and beef to China, and how to fill the market gap caused by the US tariffs. Brazilian Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro said on the same day that Brazil intends to become an alternative supplier of beef to China after nearly 400 slaughterhouses in the United States were disqualified from exporting to China.
- Chinese importers purchased at least 40 cargo ships of 2.4 million tons of soybeans from Brazil in early April. Most of these soybeans will be shipped from May to July, equivalent to one-third of China’s average monthly imports. On April 17, relevant departments in Guangzhou, China, received a cargo ship carrying 38,000 tons of Brazilian soybeans.
- In July 2025, the 17th BRICS Leaders’ Meeting will be held in Rio de Janeiro, when the US suspension period of reciprocal tariffs on specific countries and regions expires. It can be expected that countries will make more discussions and changes on economic and trade exchanges.
2. Trade policies and economic and trade status of China and Pakistan under strategic cooperation
1. Strategic cooperation and trade policy
Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the political relations between China and Brazil have been friendly and strengthened. As the largest developing countries in the eastern and western hemispheres, China and Brazil have gradually upgraded their cooperative relationship to “jointly build a community of shared future for China and Brazil to build a more just world and a more sustainable planet” since the establishment of diplomatic relations. The major milestones of the relationship between the two sides are as follows:
- In 1974, China and Brazil established diplomatic relations.
- In 1993, the two countries established a strategic partnership.
- In 2012, the relationship between the two countries was upgraded to a comprehensive strategic partnership.
- In 2024, bilateral relations will be upgraded to “China-Pakistan community with a shared future for a more just world and a more sustainable planet.”
In the past two years, the economic and trade cooperation between China and Brazil has entered a new stage. In March 2023, Brazil and China reached an agreement to no longer use the US dollar as an intermediate currency, but to settle trade in their own currencies.
At the same time, under the strategic cooperative relationship of building a community with a shared future, China and Pakistan have signed agreements or memorandums of cooperation in agriculture and animal husbandry, agricultural products and agricultural technology, mineral energy, bioeconomy, ecological transformation and green development, digital economy, artificial intelligence, photovoltaic industry and other fields. Bilateral economic and trade relations have made great progress. [3] This is beneficial to technology companies that provide innovative solutions for basic industries such as mining and agriculture, the consumer electronics industry represented by smart terminals and smart homes, and digital technology fields such as new energy vehicles, artificial intelligence, and e-commerce.
For further information, please contact:
Andy See, Anjie Broad Law
andy.see@anjielaw.com
