22 January 2021
Welcome to Edition 6 of the Low Carbon Pulse – sharing significant news in the progress towards net-zero emissions. This Edition covers the period December 14, 2020 to January 12, 2021.
The momentum described in the first five editions of Low Carbon Pulse has continued, and appears likely to continue during 2021.
On January 20, 2021, we will publish Edition 7 of Low Carbon Pulse focussing on the implications for the US and the world of the anticipated re-accession of the US to the Paris Agreement, and other changes arising from the new US administration. On January 26, 2021 we will publish Edition 8 of Low Carbon Pulse.
From the Ashurst Global Towards Zero Emissions team, Happy (Belated) Calendar New Year.
Japan targets 10 by 30 and 45 by 40
In Edition 1 of the Low Carbon Pulse we reported on UK plans to develop 40 GW of off-shore wind by 2030, describing this as 40 by 30. We have continued to use this short-hand in Editions of Low Carbon Pulse.
On December 17, 2020, it was reported that Japan is targeting the development of 45 GW of off-shore wind capacity (fixed bottom and floating) by 2040, and 10 GW by 2030. If this report proves to be correct, taken with other news, Japan will be achieving close to 27% of its electrical load being sourced from renewable energy by 2030. This is consistent with the announcement in late October (see Edition 2 of Low Carbon Pulse ) of net zero emissions by 2050.
PRC leading the race to decarbonise
On January 01, 2021, Nikkei Asia published an article that makes a persuasive case for the People's Republic of China (PRC) leading the race to decarbonise. One of the more startling figures in the article is that the PRC, the US, the EU and Japan together will need to invest up to US$ 82 trillion to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. This is the highest investment figure that we have seen reported.
At the Climate Ambition Summit that took place virtually on December 12, 2020, the PRC President, Mr Xi Jinping made pledges, which if implemented, will ensure that peak PRC GHG emissions occur by 2030. The scale of the projects that are being announced, and the speed of the development of projects in the PRC, reflects a current and real commitment to renewable energy at the centre of decarbonisation.
While not core, it should be noted that the PRC's carbon trading system will commence on February 1, 2021, and once fully implemented will apply to a little over 1/3 of the GHG emissions arising in the PRC, providing further impetus to decarbonisation. Consistent with a more controlled economy, provincial governments will impose caps on GHG emissions. As with other emissions trading schemes around the world, businesses on which caps are imposed may buy the right to emit GHG from other businesses. To many, this is an exciting development. Given the size of the PRC economy, it is to be expected that the PRC ETS will overtake the EU emissions trading scheme as the world's largest emissions trading scheme. It would not be a surprise to seek the scope of the PRC ETS extended in the near to medium term.
See: NikkeiAsai – Climate Change – China out in front in global race to eliminate CO2 emissions
Insurers ceasing fossil fuel insurance
In a number of countries insurers are indicating to long standing customers in the fossil fuel industry that they are going to cease to write insurance for them. As a firm, Ashurst has seen this dynamic in the coal industry, both thermal and metallurgical coal emerging for some time.
On December 17, 2020, Lloyds of London announced that it would cease to write insurance for new coal, oil sands and arctic energy projects by 2022, and cease to insure businesses undertaking activities in these areas, and seemingly other fossil fuel businesses, completely by 2030. Lloyds Chair, Mr Bruce Carnegie-Brown has been reported as saying: "We want to align with the UN sustainability development goals and the principles in the Paris [Agreement]."
This is one instance in which the headlines in newsfeeds and news sources are lagging behind the practical every day challenges facing fossil fuel industry participants: a number of coal miners have been told that 2021 is that last year in which insurers will write insurance for them. Many participants in the industry are looking to captive and to self-insurance options as part of their business models. While IOC and NOCs are familiar with these concepts, for many in the coal mining industry this is a road less travelled.
See: The Guardian – Lloyds Market to quit fossil fuel insurance by 2030
Green Hydrogen Corridors and Hubs
A number of energy agencies and energy industry participants are anticipating the development of green hydrogen corridors (GH2Cs). The designation of GH2Cs reflects that a number of areas of the world are being defined as prospective for the development of green hydrogen and green ammonia production based on the quality of their renewable resources, including the PRC, Australia, the Near and Middle East and North Africa, as well as Brazil, Chile, India, Mexico, and Southern Europe (principally Portugal and Spain for the time being) and the Southern US (the sunbelt States).
It is clear that Algiers, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Australia, and Chile, given existing connections and renewable resources, are likely to be key export countries. The PRC, India, Mexico and the US are blessed with renewable resources, and large home markets that will allow them the scale-up to develop their own green hydrogen corridors within their own boundaries, and the ability to scale-up production for export to take advantage of that scale.
See: Oil Price.com – The World's First Major Hydrogen Hubs Are in the Making
Global Road Map for net-zero emissions by 2050
On January 11, 2021 the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a press statement indicating that during 2021 it will produce the first global comprehensive roadmap for the energy sector to reach net-zero emissions by GHG – The World's Roadmap to Net Zero by 2050.
The IEA continues to provide key data and information for all participants in the energy sector, and more broadly. The World's Roadmap to Net Zero by 2050 is intended to provide all participants (including governments and the private sector) with a description of what is required to achieve the Stretch Goal under the Paris Agreement (to limit the increase in global temperature to 1.5OC above pre-industrial levels).
It is anticipated that The World's Roadmap to Net Zero by 2050 will be released on May 18, 2021. The Ashurst Global Towards Zero Emissions team will publish a standalone publication soon after release.
See: IEA – World Energy Outlook 2020
South Australia – a place with abundant sun and wind
During December 27, 2020, in the state of South Australia, 99.6% of the electrical energy supply across the grid was sourced from renewable energy: the mix of electrical energy was wind, solar (roof-top and utility scale) and batteries, with limited electrical energy sourced from gas-powered facilities. Approximately 1/3 of South Australian homes have roof-top solar, with combined solar name plate capacity of 1.42 GW.
Throughout 2020 in South Australia, as an average, electrical energy sourced from renewable resources contributed 59.6% of electrical energy supply: 42.9% wind and 16.7% solar. If the rate of progress towards the use of renewable energy continues at a rate consistent with current trends in South Australia, it is estimated that the average of electrical energy supply will increase to 63.5% in 2021, and to 100% by 2030.
As noted in Edition 3 of Low Carbon Pulse (include link), South Australia is planning to develop renewable resources to allow it to become a world scale producer and exporter of hydrogen. This is based on the natural dynamic of solar and wind arising applying a capacity factor of 10% to 25%. South Australia intends to develop a renewable energy system sufficient to supply electrical energy to match 100% of electrical load, and to provide sufficient additional electrical energy to enable the production of green hydrogen, requiring between three and six times the current nameplate capacity of renewable energy sources in South Australia.
Building on this on December 16, 2020, the Government of South Australia predicted that by 2050 it could have more than 500% of current local grid demand being produced as renewable energy. The South Australian Government Climate Action Plan 2021 – 2025 states:
If Australia is to become the global superpower for the production of green energy carriers (green hydrogen and green ammonia) it is likely that it will have to develop 600 to 700 % renewables. One thing is clear, Australia has world class renewable energy sources, and as such is not only able to achieve these levels, but also much greater levels.
See: Photovoltaic, AEMO South Australian Electricity Report for 2020 and Clean Energy News and Analysis – South Australia sets sights on stunning new target of 500 pct renewables
UK – a place in the wind
On December 26, 2020 in the UK electrical energy generated from wind farms provided over half the electrical load across the grid: being 50.7% of all electricity generated in the UK on that day. About 60% of the wind power was onshore, 40% offshore. In total, nearly 75% of all electrical energy generated on December 26, 2020 was from clean sources. As a result, applying GHG accounting, each KW/h of electrical energy emitted a little less than 80 grams of GHG, a record low for the UK.
The UK is well on the road to decarbonisation of electrical energy generation, it is the difficult to decarbonise sectors where progress is probably best focused from a policy setting perspective in the near to medium term. In this context, transportation is the UK's largest source of GHG emissions. The challenge for the UK is the transition to BEVs and FCEVs powered transportation, public and private, while continuing to develop its rail and road networks.
See: Gizomodo – Climate Change – Great Britain Set a Wind Energy Milestone
Reports and forecasts summarised – it's good news, but we need to accelerate rates of reduction
The Stabilisation Goal under the Paris Agreement
In Edition 5 of Low Carbon Pulse it was noted that a report had concluded that if countries implemented their commitments to reduce GHG emissions (including to achieve net zero emissions), the achievement of the Stabilisation Goal under the Paris Agreement (ie to limit the increase in global temperature to 2.0OC above pre-industrial levels) is within reach, with a 2.1OC rise in global temperatures compared to pre-industrial levels.
In a report published in the journal Nature Climate Change on January 4, 2020, it is stated that the level of GHG emissions currently at large in the atmosphere will result in a 2.3OC rise in global temperatures compared to pre-industrial levels: effectively meaning that this projected increase in temperature is "baked-in" (Baked-in Temperature Increase). This is only part of the story.
Analysis from the Breakthrough Institute has explained that a reduction in GHG emissions will result in the Earth's natural systems being able to absorb CO2. This has been likened to a sink with water with the drain to the sink partially open – the water level will still rise due to the incoming water, but if the flow is reduced the water level will drop due to the drain remaining open (Anticipated Reaction).
Zeke Hausfather of the Breakthrough Institute has noted that: "The main takeaway .. is that this is good news, because it means that how much warming happens this century and beyond is up to us."
The two reports and the perspective of the Breakthrough Institute are reconcilable, and such a reconciliation results in good news: if the commitments to reduced emissions are realised then the rate of increase in global temperatures will be slowed due to the Anticipated Reaction, and the occurrence of the Baked-in Temperature Increase will be slowed.
The Nature Climate Change report emphasises a point that is known, but often not focussed upon – the criticality of the rate of climate change: "It is .. the rate of warming that makes climate change so terrible. If we got a few degrees over 100,000 years, that would not be a big deal. We can deal with that. But a few degrees over 100 years is really bad". (Andrew Dressler, a co-author of the report.)
The quicker the rate of climate change, the greater the concern.
This is why there is increased emphasis by some countries on increasing the rate of reduction of GHG emissions in the near to medium term, so as to slow the rate of change. The quicker the rate of reduction, the slower the rate of climate change.
… But 50% increase in CO2
The United Kingdom Meteorological Office has forecast that during first half of 2021 CO2 levels in the atmosphere will reach a 50% increase compared to pre-industrial levels. Consistent with what is stated in the preceding piece above, the issue that is of concern is the rate of increase: it took 200 years or so for CO2 levels to increase by 25%, and it has taken 30 years to increase a further 25% to 50%
This brings into sharp focus that the rate of reduction in GHG emissions needs to be accelerated. It is to be hoped that during 2021 (the year of COP 26) more countries will follow the lead of the EU and the UK to increase the rate of reduction by 2030, and to continue to press accelerate to net zero as soon as practicable. It is fair to say, that increasing the rate of reduction in the near to medium term will put the world in a better place to achieve the Stabilisation Goal than focussing on net zero emissions by 2050.
See: The Times, January 8, 2021 – Grim Milestone as CO2 levels hit 50% more than the pre-industrial age
Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA) achieves financial close on Al Dhafra
December was a busy month of the financial close on world scale renewable energy projects. First, Dogger Bank was banked in respect of the world's largest off-shore wind project (see Edition 5 of Low Carbon Pulse). Second, and in some ways a first, on December 23, 2020 it was reported that TAQA and its partners (Masdar, EDF Renewables and Jinko Power) achieved financial close on the 2GW Al Dhafra Solar PV Project, located 35 km from Abu Dhabi City.
The Al Dhafra Solar project is both world scale and world defining: 2 GW of capacity with a world record-low tariff bid of US$ 0.0135 kW/h, which was lowered further to US$ 0.0132 KW/h or 1.35 cents a KWh through the project financing (and associated hedging). To our knowledge, in real terms, the Al Dhafra Solar PV Project provides for the supply of electrical energy at the lowest cost in history.
As noted in the first in the series of the Shift to Hydrogen (S2H2): Elemental Change articles, in real terms electrical energy is now being supplied at historically low costs.
See: Renew Economy – World's largest solar plant – 2 GW – secures project financing
Indian record low tariff
During the final quarter of 2020, a number of renewable energy auctions took place. On December 22, 2020 it was reported that the tendered price for 500 MW of electrical energy in Gujarat (run as a reverse auction, i.e. lowest price winning) had resulted in India Rupee 1.99 kWh (or US$ 0.0269 or 2.69 cents a KWh).
See: PV Magazine – India – Indian PV auction delivers final record low price of $0.0269/KW/h
Germany – roof-top solar investments to continue
In Edition 5 of Low Carbon Pulse it was noted that Germany had achieved 2 million roof-top solar installations. On December 16, 2020 the German Solar Association (BSW) stated that the increase in roof-top solar was not limited for photo-voltaic.
As is the case in most jurisdictions, the sustained growth in roof-top solar is dependent on policy settings. BSW considers that: "By shifting a few energy policy levers, the installation pace be doubled [or even tripled] in a timely manner and the dependence on subsidies reduced".
What this could mean in practice, is that year on year roof-top solar may increase to between 10 GW and 15 GW of installed capacity each year, compared to 4.8 GW in 2020.
With solar will come increased use of battery storage, and therefore increased flexibility.
The scope for roof-top solar in Germany is significant in the context of the electrical energy supply for the country, with the increased use of roof-top solar reducing the need for utility scale solar or wind for the purposes of electrical energy, and allowing faster progress towards energy transition.
See: PV Magazine – Germany's solar boom set to continue in 2021
Power-to-X: what? where? And how much?
Over the last quarter the concept of Power-to-X has become part of the lexicon of energy transition, in particular in the context of renewable energy and energy carriers produced using renewable energy, including synthetic gases and liquid non-biofuels.
Conceptually the model of Power-to-X tests what is required for the world to be powered entirely by renewable sources and energy carriers produced using sources by 2050. For these purposes, Power-to-X assumes that future fuels / green fuels or powerfuels will establish themselves to supply different markets, and be capable of use in different markets, including ammonia, hydrogen, methane and methanol, each being an energy carrier in liquid form.
Power-to-X does not involve the use of fossil fuels, but does contemplate the use of renewable carbon sourced feedstocks that on net basis do not give rise to the emission of GHG. The concept contemplates the use of CO2 as a feedstock to create powerfuels.
Among other things, the concept and model assumes that a global market for, and global trade in, powerfuels will develop, allowing imports from Africa, the Near and Middle East and South America into Europe, and Australia and South America into Asia, in particular into North Asia.
If the market for, and trade in, powerfuels were to develop, in the context of imports from Africa, the Near and Middle East, and South America, its estimated value is E2.1 trillion a year by 2050, with up to E10 trillion of renewable energy sources and powerfuel production facilities required by 2050. The market and investment for Asia may be regarded as up to three times this size.
Power-to-X describes a concept by which future fuels or green fuels will provide up to 30% of global energy needs, and sub-concepts (power-to-mobility (P-t-M) and power-to-heat (P-t-H). The concept is best described in the Finnish National Hydrogen Roadmap:
Power-to-X (P2X) refers to a number of electricity conversion, energy storage, and reconversion pathways that utilise electric power and allow the decoupling of power from the electricity sector for use in other sectors (such as transport and chemicals)".
The role of Power-to-X is outlined in a joint study undertaken by Finland's Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) and the German Energy Agency (DENA), commissioned by the Global Alliance Powerfuels. |
See: PV magazine – Power-to-X may cover 28% of global energy demand by 2050
Pumped storage – a global opportunity
Pumped storage has long been regarded as a viable means of storing energy – to some, pumped storage provides ideal "battery storage": pumped storage generates electrical energy from the latent energy stored in water, typically generated during times of higher or peak load, and pumping the water back into storage at times of lower load. In a number of jurisdictions, pumped storage has been viewed, and in an increasing number of jurisdictions is viewed, as a means of providing system integrity and stability.
The challenge with pumped storage in some instances has been that while the generation of electrical energy from stored energy in water is renewable energy (green power) on production, the electrical energy used to pump the water back into storage has not been green, rather black power has been used for this purpose. The implication of this varies by jurisdiction: at best black power does not achieve the required or hoped for GHG outcome, more black power being used than green power generated, and at worst the generator using black power is required to acquit carbon certificates of some kind in respect of the black power used with a resulting unit cost impact, unless exempted from doing so, or the cost of doing so is a cost recoverable / spread across grid system charges.
Increasingly, the development of renewable energy sources and the profile of electrical energy use has meant that there are times in the day during which green power can be used to pump the water back into storage. As increased renewable energy capacity is installed, it may be expected that there will be sufficient green power to pump water back into storage, and to allow pumped storage to complement (or possibly to compete with) battery storage.
The Global Atlas of Closed-Loop Pumped Hydro Energy Storage identifies 616,818 sites globally as suitable for pumped storage facility development. If all the sites were developed there would be 23.1 million GWh of pumped storage capacity. "The total global storage capacity is 23 million GWh, 300 times larger than the world's average electricity production of 0.07 million GWh a day". Using around 1% of the sites identified would result in 100% of electrical energy load being satisfied by this renewable energy resource.
Consistent with the point made above, electrical energy is required to pump water back into storage, and as such this is not a 100% pumped storage, zero % other renewables discussion.
See: PV Magazine – Sustainable pumped-hydro across 616,818 sites
E-mobility plugged-in to play
In 2020, Plug Power Inc raised around US$ 1 billion to allow it to build out its manufacturing footprint to produce electrolysers (developed across five sites) and fuel cells to provide green hydrogen to fuel for 40,000 forklifts. In addition, Plug Power, Inc has a clear line of sight to provide hydrogen vehicles at airports and to power industrial robotics and stationary power at data centres.
On January 7, 2021 it was announced that Plug Power Inc. and SK Group intend to form a strategic alliance with the objective of accelerating the development of the hydrogen economy in Korea, and in Asian markets more broadly. It is understood that SK Group will invest up to US$ 1.5 billion in Plug Power, Inc.
Plug Power, Inc. is a clear leader in fuel cell technology, green hydrogen production and distribution.
As noted in Editions 3 and 4 of Low Carbon Pulse, the SK Group is active in the fuel cell technology, fixed and mobile uses of fuel cell technology, including working with Bloom Energy on a number of fixed fuel cell technology projects.
US has Biggest BESS
In December 2020, the world's largest battery energy storage system (BESS) commenced operation. Phase 1 of the Moss Landing Energy Storage BESS was connected to the Californian grid on December 11, 2020. The vital statistics of Phase 1 are 300 MW / 1,200 MWh. Phase 2 (to be completed in August 2021) will add a further 100 MW / 400 MWh. Ultimately, the Moss Landing Site has the potential to host 1,500 MW / 6,000 MWh of BESS capacity. The level of renewable energy rolled out during 2020 (see Edition 5 of Low Carbon Pulse) and the level of activity in BESS illustrates that the Biden Administration has a good deal to build on.
Australian States and private sector
In the third piece on Zero Heroes (countries punching above their weight in progress towards zero emissions), we have chosen to reflect on the States and Territories and the private sector in Australia: the previous two pieces extolled Chile and Spain in Editions 4 and 5 of Low Carbon Pulse.
Australia is a Federation of six States and two Territories, each of which has its own Government. In addition, there is a Federal Government, which receives taxes from corporations and individuals and, among other things, has the power in respect of, and responsibility for, commerce within Australia, and overseas trade.
On December 12, 2020, 75 leaders met virtually to participate in the Climate Ambition Summit: the Summit was held instead of the postponed annual Conference of the Parties. Following the Summit (organised by the UK, UN, France, Chile and Italy) that had 24 countries in attendance, the European Union has adopted zero emissions targets. During the Summit, Canada announced an increase in its carbon price to C$ 170 per tonne by 2030, Denmark announced an end to oil and gas exploration activities within its jurisdiction, and India announced "450 by 30", i.e. the development of 450 GW of renewable energy by 2030 (ten-fold the off-shore wind target of Japan, and more than ten-fold that of the UK), driven by the scale of the load in India. It has been widely reported that the Federal Government of Australia was sidelined at the Climate Ambition Summit.
See: Australia left behind as world leaders brush off Morrison’s empty climate gestures
Australia has long been regarded as "dragging the chain" (in the Australian vernacular) on the percentage reduction of GHG emissions: in comparison, whereas the UK is committed to a reduction of 68% in GHG emissions compared to 1990 levels by 2030, Australia remains committed to a reduction of 26 to 28% of 2005 levels by 2030. The States and Territories are progressing at a faster rate.
Renewable Energy as a percentage of electrical energy, current and proposed by 2030
|
|||||
State/Territory |
2019 renewable generation |
2030 renewable energy target |
State/Territory |
2019 renewable generation |
2030 renewable energy target |
Australian Capital Territory |
See NSW 1 |
100% 2 |
New South Wales |
17.1% |
None 3 |
Northern Territory |
N/A 4 |
50% |
Queensland |
14.1% |
50% |
South Australia |
52.1% |
100% |
Tasmania |
95.6% |
100% |
Victoria |
23.9% |
50% |
Western Australia |
20.9% |
None |
The Federal Government introduced policy settings at the turn of the 21st century to encourage the development of a renewable energy industry, through the imposition of obligations on retailers and large users of electrical energy to source a percentage of their electrical energy from a renewable source. It is however the supply side and the demand side of the Australian electricity industry, and State and Territory governments, that are primarily responsible for the scale of the development of the renewable energy industry including integrated electricity companies such as AGL, EnergyAustralia and Origin Energy, and overseas developers of renewable energy capacity, and an ever increasingly dynamic corporate power purchase agreement market (see Edition 5 of the Low Carbon Pulse). In many ways, Australia has lead the way in the adoption of BESS. PV Magazine reported on December 17, 2020 that Australia has a pipeline of electrical energy storage pipelines at 7 GW, with more than 900 MW of this pipeline to be delivered by 2024.
See: PV magazine – Australia’s battery energy storage pipeline at 7 GW
The adoption of BESS has been in response, at least in part, to grid connection and integrity and stability issues, has placed Australia at the forefront of the use of BESS. The Federal Government is seeking to respond to these issues, but ideally initiatives would have been undertaken some time ago so as to avoid the issues in the first place. There was no shortage of representations to the Federal Government from the private sector how best to address these issues ahead of time, and since.
The paradox is that Australia has a clear pathway to higher percentage rates of reduction in GHG emissions, indeed it may be regarded as having a relatively easy pathway, some may say much easier than most other countries. Critically, Australia is blessed with world class renewable energy resources (solar and wind) across its land mass: unlike many countries, Australia is not limited by onshore capacity such that it does not need to develop off-shore wind (or solar) capacity: on-shore Australia has the capacity to provide close to half the world's required electrical energy supply and green hydrogen and ammonia production close to the largest markets – i.e. half the renewable energy capacity to deliver on the Power-to-X model.
It is this dynamic that may be regarded as driving the development of:
-
world scale renewable energy solar and wind stations in Western Australia and the Northern Territory (see Edition 2 (Northern Australia – Asia's renewable energy and H2 hub, including the Asian Renewable Energy Hub (up to 26 GW of solar and wind) and the Newcastle Waters 10 GW Solar Station) and 4 of the Low Carbon Pulse
-
Hydrogen Hubs along Australia's south and eastern coasts (see Edition 3 (South Australia – Green On the Grid and making the most of it) and 4 (Australia, among other things< detailing the development of green ammonia and green hydrogen projects being contemplated by Fortescue Metals and Origin Energy, and Infinite green from infinite blue) of Low Carbon Pulse; and
-
the continued and projected development of BESS (see above) and pumped storage.
Fortescue Metals (one of the Big Three iron ore producers) and Origin Energy (one of the Big Three integrated energy companies) are embracing green ammonia and green hydrogen, both having strong connections with Norther Asia, Fortescue Metals in particular is blazing a trail (across all parts of the hydrogen chain, and in multiple jurisdictions), with almost weekly announcements on in principle agreements with key customers and participants in the developing industry.
In addition, Australian companies able to use hydrogen rather than natural gas in their processes are looking to switch (for example, Orica is looking at moving to the use of hydrogen rather than natural gas as the feedstock for the production of ammonium nitrate.
The pathway to GHG emission reduction is recognised by the States and Territories of Australia, each responding at its own pace, but nevertheless responding, including the fossil fuel blessed states of New South Wales and Queensland, and Western Australia. South Australia and Tasmania are leading the way (Tasmania having achieved net zero emissions in 2018). Principally, the States and Territories are setting targets for the percentage of renewable energy used in the particular State or Territory and promoting the use of large scale BESS.
GHG emissions reduction targets |
|||
State/Territory |
zero net emissions by |
State/Territory |
zero net emissions by |
Australian Capital Territory |
2045 |
New South Wales |
2050 |
Northern Territory |
2050 |
Queensland |
2050 |
South Australia |
2050 |
Tasmania |
2050 |
Victoria |
2050 |
Western Australia |
2050 |
There is an argument for the status quo, with the Federal Government grandparenting fossil fuel industries and industries dependent on lower cost electrical energy, and the States and Territories and the private sector looking to achieve their own emissions reduction targets, and looking to develop export markets. For example, Fortescue Metal is making progress on a number of fronts, including in December by signing a Memorandum of Understanding with Japanese pace-setters Kawasaki Heavy Industries (leaders in the means of transportation) and Iwatani Corporation (leaders in the means of distribution to the point of use), and in early January signing an MOU with South Korean steel maker POSCO.
Of course, the pathway could be the new super-highway were the Federal Government to provide policy settings to accelerate the development of renewable energy, including embracing the transition of key global coal and LNG exporter to key green hydrogen and ammonia exporter by 2040. There is a sustainable argument for the Federal government to take this role.
While successive Federal Governments in Australia may be regarded as having "dragged the chain", there is an opportunity to embrace change to encourage the private sector to respond. At the moment, the private sector is responding ahead of policy settings: most recently Origin Energy has announced an intention to locate a 700 MW BESS at its Eraring Coal Fire Power Station anticipating the closure of the Power Station in 2030. There are many tools available to the Federal Government to accelerate progress, for example, the use of a reverse auction process to allow coal fired power stations to cease to dispatch, and to promote the renewal of the electricity sector, and in so doing provide the benefit of lower cost electricity and the export of hydrogen (and ammonia).
At the core of the Biden Administration's ambitions is to put in place policy settings that will achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The issue is how and what. The how and what will develop over time but it is more likely than not that whatever is done, the costs to the customer must be kept at comparable levels. Critical to this is the cost of electrical energy, and the need to keep the cost of electrical energy at or below 6% of US GDP in relative terms, and at or about the same cost for businesses and households. In addition, each industry affected by the transition may require some level of grandparenting: while overall the projections are that the renewable energy industry will give rise to more jobs overall, these jobs will not be located in the areas in which industries in need of grandparenting are located.
Taking the electrical energy industry as the focal point, achieving net zero emissions by 2050 will require considerable additional investment by 2030 by increasing wind and solar capacity to between 600 GW and 1,000 GW (on the basis of anticipated electrical energy usage in 2050), increasing the capacity of the grid by between 60% and 80%, having 50 million BEVs and up to 3 million re-charging stations, and doubling (for household heating) and tripling (for business and commercial heating) the use of heat pumps.
Back in the late 1990s, and early 2000s, and in George W. Bush's first term, hydrogen was called the freedom fuel. Chile, Saudi Arabia and Australia (supply side) and Japan and Germany. David Yellen has called hydrogen the "Swiss Army knife" of the transition to clean energy. We embrace this analogy, in the same way that we embrace the concept of the Hydrogen Rainbow.
The market for green hydrogen is developing. In context, Bloomberg NEF estimates that US$11 trillion will need to be invested in production and storage globally by 2050 to ensure that green hydrogen can meet 25% of the project global energy needs by 2050 – being the level of demand that is not easily met by electrical energy, including the difficult to decarbonise industries. To achieve this around 25,000 GW of new renewable energy will be required. This is in addition to the near doubling of electrical energy capacity to supply sufficient electrical energy by 2050. In short, there are three sources of demand for new renewable energy capacity, first, to displace the use of fossil fuels as a source of energy, secondly, to anticipate and to match growth in demand for electrical energy attendant on population growth, and thirdly to allow the development of the green hydrogen and green ammonia industries.
For further information, please contact:
Michael Harrison, Partner, Ashurst
michael.harrison@ashurst.com