On November 28 through December 13, 2023, Dubai (United Arab Emirates) fostered an annual Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Amidst the hottest year on the observation record, this year, the COP28 was marked as a major event in terms of active involvement of civil society and hot debates on previously unresolved issues, such as adaptation policies, so-called Loss and Damage Funds for developing countries suffering from the consequences and disasters of the rapidly changing climate. The discussions lasted longer than expected, and the final conference statement was released only on December 13, after a long night of debates between the delegates. It was nicknamed “the beginning of the end” of the fossil-fuel era, although some activists remain unsatisfied with vague expressions to react to a climate emergency. We recommend reading the full paper released by the UNFCCC[1] for more information.
1. Fossil fuels: phase out, phase down or transition away from?
The Dubai meeting was the first-ever COP in history that mentioned fossil fuels as the linking cause, which has to be neglected to mitigate the effects of human-induced climate change. Although the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports (which serve as a scientific basis for the UNFCCC policy-making) mentioned that the use of fossil fuels is the major reason for the greenhouse effect causing human-induced climate change, legally, there has not yet been such clarification in the sources of international climate change law. Even though, at a certain point, it seemed that the agreement on the need to move away from fossil-fuel dependence would not happen as the delegates to the Conference could not find common ground for the correct expression, COP28 remarkably achieved the consensus. A significant conflict of interests was surrounding the political debate between the “phase-out” (meaning a radical elimination of fossil fuels) or “phase down” (meaning a more steady decline of the use of fossil fuels), with arguments from different stakeholders of various backgrounds. It took three drafts to finalise the statement. As a result, the final statement defined the need to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, adopting a just, orderly, and equitable approach and expediting action throughout this crucial decade. The objective is to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, aligning with scientific recommendations.”
The text finalised in Dubai acknowledges the imperative for significant, swift, and continual reductions in greenhouse gas emissions aligned with the 1.5 °C target. Still, it does not aim all measures to fulfil it. It urges Parties to contribute to global initiatives actively, considering the Paris Agreement and their unique national circumstances, pathways, and approaches. COP experts are scrutinising terminology, noting the nuanced shift from “calls on” to “transitioning away,” deviating from the initial preference for a stronger “phase-out” option, along with the proposed time frame; moreover, some wording creates loopholes and scapegoats for greenwashing solutions, such as the carbon capture and storage technologies which are not favoured by the climate activists community since they only offer a temporary limited solution, rather than solve the direct cause of climate change.
2. Renewable Energy
In the same section as the “fossil fuel” clause, the global stocktake proposes to increase the renewable energy capabilities globally by 3 times and to double “ the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030.” The clause is taking the lead since it clarifies a specific quantified target for the parties by a certain deadline with renewable energy ambitions.
3. Loss and Damage Fund
COP28 established the awaited Loss and Damage Fund, with an overall $700 million USD contribution pledged by developed states to address climate-related losses and damages in favour of Global South. Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement mentioned that “Developed country Parties shall provide financial resources to assist developing country Parties to both mitigation and adaptation in continuation of their existing obligations under the Convention [UNFCCC]”. Moreover, article 8 amplified the necessity of addressing the loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change, including extreme weather events and slow onset events, and the role of sustainable development in reducing the risk of loss and damage, amplifying the UNFCCC mechanisms. Therefore, an urge to create the Loss and Damage Fund was expected since the adoption of the Paris Agreement; the issue elaborating on Article 8 of the Paris Agreement was noted during last year’s COP27, but wasn’t completed until now. Although it is a clearly positive step in terms of climate justice, some concerns arise over the adequacy of addressing the escalating financial needs associated with climate-related loss and damage, as well as the distribution of compensation or possible grants. It has been suggested that the pledged amount falls significantly short of the estimated $400 billion USD needed annually by developing countries to tackle loss and damage associated with extreme climate events, which is especially terrible for the small island states losing their territories due to rising sea levels. Developing countries are disproportionately challenged by the effects of climate change and the need to mitigate their carbon input, which often results in the inability to comply with a climate burden due to a simple lack of finances. Therefore, the Global South asserts a requirement of at least $400 billion USD annually, considering the economic costs of extreme events in 2022 alone surpassed $100 billion USD. The declared amount falls significantly short, representing less than 1% of developing countries’ expectations and only 0.2% of actual needs – and the collection of that still needs to be guaranteed. Overall, the urgency of the climate condition in terms of global power dynamics demands wealthier and polluting nations to bear a financial burden and redirect existing subsidies toward climate action. This leads us to conclude that the job regarding Loss and Damage after COP28 still needs to be completed. Still, there is room for improvement and, therefore, hope.
4. Global Goal on Adaptation
Climate action is usually divided into two main features: the mitigation of the threats of climate change (meaning adopting the policies to reduce the anthropogenic greenhouse effect by regulating the emissions, air pollution or limiting other factors which contribute to climate change to prolong temperature rise) and adaptation to the impacts of climate change (meaning increasing the resilience of the countries capacities and reduced vulnerabilities of risks related to climate change). Although the Paris Agreement establishes a goal to enhance adaptive capacity, strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change, the need of the Parties to make efforts to adapt to the threats of climate change adequately, the adaptation targets were slightly overlooked during the previous meetings; adaptation targets were sometimes neglected in the first statements submitted by the states in relation to Nationally Determined Contributions on the Climate Change (NDC’s) under the Paris Agreement (for example, Kazakhstan first NDC statement had only mitigation targets). Therefore, negotiators had yet to define a framework for understanding this Global Goal of Adaptation, including clear targets or how they would be measured. This year at COP28, negotiators have finally agreed to global time-bound targets for specific themes and sectors (such as water and health) and the adaptation policy process. At this point, the targets lack financial and other support for developing countries; they also need to be quantified, which will need extra consideration in the upcoming sessions to be successfully implemented.
5. Reviewing the NDC’s
Ahead of the COP28, all 193 Parties to the Paris Agreement have submitted at least their first NDC; 151 among them amended or updated NDC in a due manner. But quality and ambition vary for many reasons, including a lack of adequate finance, capacity and, in some cases, insufficient political commitment. (Many NDCs to date only cover carbon dioxide emissions and selected parts of the economy and do not set emissions reduction targets.) The COP28 position statement invites countries to submit their new NDCs ahead of COP30 in 2025. Under the Paris Agreement, each party shall communicate, at five-year intervals, successively more ambitious NDCs. Under the common timeframes decision adopted in 2021 in Glasgow, each NDC will last ten years but will be updated every five years. In the upcoming phase, nations are anticipated to revise their 2030 goals and introduce new targets for 2035. The decision reached at COP28 emphasises the necessity for these new NDCs to be more ambitious. This aligns with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) findings, which highlight that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius requires a 60% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions below 2019 levels by 2035. In addition to adjusting emissions targets for 2030, the outcome of COP28 underscores that the next set of NDCs should go beyond existing efforts to curb emissions. They should also encompass strategies and priorities for adaptation, initiatives supporting a just transition, and addressing loss and damage. The decision further specifies that these contributions should reflect transformative actions spanning various sectors, including but not limited to clean energy, nature conservation, road transport, and more. Governments will start to prepare their next round of NDCs in 2024. COP28 calls for the UN to host global and regional workshops and capacity-building sessions to help them.
In Conclusion
Although the Paris Agreement is celebrating its 8th anniversary and notable progress is being made in climate commitments, experts notice that the targets set still need to be achieved and demand urgent treaty-consistent action based on scientific evidence. The next conference has been announced for November 2024 in Azerbaijan – and we believe it will exceed expectations and fulfil its mission.
“The people in power don’t need conferences, treaties or agreements to start taking real climate action. They can start today. When enough people come together, change will come, and we can achieve almost anything. So instead of looking for hope – start creating it.” Greta Thunberg, climate activist, 2021
